Modelling the range expansion of the Tiger mosquito in a Mediterranean Island accounting for imperfect detection

Table 3 Estimates from model ψ(t)γ(t)ε(t)p(t), assuming all parameters variable over time. Credible interval (CI) at 2.5% and 97.5% are reported. Parameters: ψ_i = occupancy probability at time i, γ_i = colonization probability, e.g. the probability that an empty site is occupied between i and i + 1, ε_i = extinction probability, e.g. the probability that an occupied size at i is not-occupied at i + 1,, λ_i = the growth rate of occupied size between i and i + 1, ψ_eq = occupation probability at equilibrium (see text for details)

Parameter	Mean	Sd	2.5% quantile	97.5% quantile
ψ₂₀₁₂	0.351	0.102	0.184	0.58
ψ₂₀₁₃	0.587	0.159	0.291	0.887
ψ₂₀₁₄	0.568	0.071	0.428	0.704
ψ₂₀₁₅	0.899	0.044	0.800	0.968
γ₂₀₁₂	0.667	0.201	0.258	0.980
γ₂₀₁₃	0.669	0.182	0.251	0.974
γ₂₀₁₄	0.862	0.075	0.686	0.973
ε₂₀₁₂	0.566	0.24	0.059	0.935
ε₂₀₁₃	0.509	0.133	0.252	0.769
ε₂₀₁₄	0.073	0.051	0.007	0.197
p₂₀₁₂	0.63	0.118	0.384	0.839
p₂₀₁₃	0.26	0.103	0.112	0.510
p₂₀₁₄	0.80	0.048	0.693	0.882
p₂₀₁₅	0.85	0.033	0.782	0.909
λ₂₀₁₂	1.846	0.833	0.685	3.867
λ₂₀₁₃	1.057	0.388	0.580	2.047
λ₂₀₁₄	1.610	0.220	1.261	2.113
ψ_eq	0.661	0.066	0.548	0.804

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