Skip to main content

Table 3 Estimates from model ψ(t)γ(t)ε(t)p(t), assuming all parameters variable over time. Credible interval (CI) at 2.5% and 97.5% are reported. Parameters: ψi = occupancy probability at time i, γi = colonization probability, e.g. the probability that an empty site is occupied between i and i + 1, εi = extinction probability, e.g. the probability that an occupied size at i is not-occupied at i + 1,, λi = the growth rate of occupied size between i and i + 1, ψeq = occupation probability at equilibrium (see text for details)

From: Modelling the range expansion of the Tiger mosquito in a Mediterranean Island accounting for imperfect detection

Parameter Mean Sd 2.5% quantile 97.5% quantile
ψ2012 0.351 0.102 0.184 0.58
ψ2013 0.587 0.159 0.291 0.887
ψ2014 0.568 0.071 0.428 0.704
ψ2015 0.899 0.044 0.800 0.968
γ2012 0.667 0.201 0.258 0.980
γ2013 0.669 0.182 0.251 0.974
γ2014 0.862 0.075 0.686 0.973
ε2012 0.566 0.24 0.059 0.935
ε2013 0.509 0.133 0.252 0.769
ε2014 0.073 0.051 0.007 0.197
p2012 0.63 0.118 0.384 0.839
p2013 0.26 0.103 0.112 0.510
p2014 0.80 0.048 0.693 0.882
p2015 0.85 0.033 0.782 0.909
λ2012 1.846 0.833 0.685 3.867
λ2013 1.057 0.388 0.580 2.047
λ2014 1.610 0.220 1.261 2.113
ψeq 0.661 0.066 0.548 0.804