Table 1 Distribution models for ten amphibians and two reptiles by logistic regression analysis of presence-absence data for Portugal. Model conditions are with 13 variables (condition 1) or with nine variables (condition 2; details see text). Environmental data are standardized, except for LITH. Paramers with large effect (values >1) are shown in boldface type. The fit of the descriptive models is expressed by Cohen's kappa and the 'Area Under the Curve in Receiver Operating Characteristic' plots (AUC) and asymptotic standard error (SE). Distribution models derived from the equations are shown as 'probability of occurrence' maps for Portugal in figures 1 and 2 and as range maps for the Iberian Peninsula in figures 3 and 4.
Observed | Modelling | Model equation † | Model fit | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Species | presences | condition | ACID | ALTI | FROD | FROM | HARD | HUMI | INSO | LITH ‡ | NDVI | PRET | RELI | TEMP | TJUL | Constant | kappa | AUC ± SE | |
Amphibians | |||||||||||||||||||
a) Chioglossa lusitanica | 202 | 1 | -1.120 | -1.635 | 3.405 | 1.919 | -1.226 | -2.511 | 0.8847 | 0.989 ± 0.002 | |||||||||
2 | -1.864 | 3.900 | 1.743 | -1.170 | -1.857 | 0.8547 | 0.987 ± 0.003 | ||||||||||||
b) Pleurodeles waltl | 144 | 1, 2 | -0.803 | 0.848 | -0.559 | 0.3885 | 0.745 ± 0.018 | ||||||||||||
c) Triturus marmoratus | 226 | 1 | -1.406 | -1.057 | -0.316 | 0.671 | -0.368 | 0.6305 | 0.853 ± 0.013 | ||||||||||
2 | -0.522 | -0.611 | -0.780 | 0.607 | -0.565 | -0.649 | 0.596 | 0.854 ± 0.013 | |||||||||||
d) T. pygmaeus | 130 | 1, 2 | -0.512 | -0.652 | 0.253 | -0.943 | 0.984 | 0.444 | -0.796 | 0.4072 | 0.751 ± 0.018 | ||||||||
e) Alytes cisternasii | 223 | 1 | -0.623 | -0.411 | 1.066 | -1.376 | 0.759 | -1.210 | -0.915 | 0.5967 | 0.871 ± 0.012 | ||||||||
f) A. obstetricans | 169 | 1 | 0.872 | -0.617 | -0.416 | 0.535 | -0.836 | 0.5737 | 0.879 ± 0.013 | ||||||||||
2 | 1.028 | -0.554 | 0.610 | -0.674 | 0.5581 | 0.879 ± 0.013 | |||||||||||||
g) Hyla arborea | 132 | 1 | -0.458 | -0.523 | 0.336 | -0.404 | -0.367 | 0.789 | -0.538 | 0.486 | -0.849 | -0.631 | -0.337 | 0.3533 | 0.742 ± 0.021 | ||||
2 | -0.463 | -0.335 | -0.526 | -0.480 | -0.615 | -0.386 | -0.167 | 0.2575 | 0.682 ± 0.023 | ||||||||||
h) H. meridionalis | 95 | 1, 2 | 0.972 | -0.577 | 0.408 | -0.707 | 1.115 | -0.709 | 0.4301 | 0.777 ± 0.02 | |||||||||
i) Pelodytes ibericus | 91 | 1 | -0.371 | -0.604 | 0.785 | 1.753 | -0.717 | -1.451 | 0.5909 | 0.863 ± 0.016 | |||||||||
2 | -0.738 | 2.533 | -0.639 | -1.446 | 0.5052 | 0.843 ± 0.018 | |||||||||||||
j) Rana iberica | 229 | 1 | 0.635 | -0.902 | 1.988 | -0.934 | 0.7448 | 0.936 ± 0.008 | |||||||||||
2 | 0.753 | -0.605 | 1.890 | -0.746 | 0.7494 | 0.935 ± 0.008 | |||||||||||||
Reptiles | |||||||||||||||||||
k) Anguis fragilis | 83 | 1, 2 | -0.360 | -0.605 | 0.512 | -1.046 | -1.141 | 0.5866 | 0.876 ± 0.016 | ||||||||||
l) Lacerta schreiberi | 272 | 1 | -0.273 | -1.080 | -1.239 | -0.501 | -1.327 | -0.103 | 0.6441 | 0.899 ± 0.010 | |||||||||
2 | -0.858 | 0.479 | -1.104 | -0.594 | 0.6353 | 0.897 ± 0.010 | |||||||||||||