Figure 2

Optimal reaction norms for plasticity. In the simulation, the adult phenotype develops at time 2 through a crossover interaction between an environmental cue and the individual's plasticity. In turn, plasticity (i.e., the slope of the reaction norm) is determined at time 1 based on another environmental cue. Blue lines show the optimal slope at time 2 for different values of the cue received at time 1. Cue reliability is the correlation between a cue and the corresponding environmental state at each time point. Environmental stability is indexed by the autocorrelation between the state of the environment at time 1 and that at time 3. Fitness at time 3 is determined by a Gaussian function with the same characteristics across environmental states. Data represent 10,000 simulated individuals for each value of the environmental cue at time 1.