Table 4 Summary of model-selection according to Mark[106] for fixed-effects models of daily survival rate for kestrel nests ( N = 157)

Laying date^‡ + Sealed soil (%)

3

271.42

0.00

0.5659

Laying date^‡ + Sealed soil (%) + Age found

4

272.19

0.77

0.3852

Laying date^‡

2

276.61

5.19

0.0422

Distance (m)^† from closest open green space (≥1 ha) + Sealed soil (%)

3

282.05

10.62

0.0028

Presence/absence of green courtyard + Sealed soil (%)

3

282.88

11.45

0.0018

Sealed soil (%)

2

283.86

12.44

0.0011

Age found + Sealed soil (%)

3

284.89

13.47

0.0007

Nearest neighbour distance (m)^†

2

288.30

16.88

0.0001

Age found

2

290.46

19.04

0

Intercept-only model (constant daily survival rate)

1

290.49

19.07

0

Time Trend

2

290.89

19.47

0

Traffic area (m², in r = 100 m around the nest site)^†

2

291.27

19.85

0