Landscape homogenization due to agricultural intensification disrupts the relationship between reproductive success and main prey abundance in an avian predator

Table 2 (a) Top models with ΔAIC_c < 4.0 for factors that influence nestling survival in Eurasian kestrels (successful nests only). (b) Model-averaged coefficients from a set of 7 models with ΔAIC_c < 4.0 (cumulative ω_i = 0.53) presented as estimated values ± (unconditional) SE, lower and upper 95% CIs, N containing models and relative variable importance (RVI); confidence intervals of parameter estimates not including zero in bold

(a)	Nestling survival (n = 428)	df	LogLik	AIC_c	ΔAIC_c	ω_i
1.	ld cen + age + voles + TLCH + age × voles + age × TLCH + voles × TLCH	12	− 509.00	1042.75	0.00	0.18
2.	ld cen + age + voles + TLCH + age × voles + voles × TLCH	11	− 510.14	1042.92	0.17	0.17
3.	ld cen + voles + TLCH + voles × TLCH	8	− 514.57	1045.48	2.72	0.05
4.	ld cen + age + voles + TLCH + voles × TLCH	9	− 513.58	1045.59	2.83	0.04
5.	ld cen + age + voles + TLCH + dist + NND + age × voles + age × TLCH + voles × TLCH	14	− 508.60	1046.21	3.46	0.03
6.	ld cen + age + voles + TLCH + age × TLCH + voles × TLCH	10	− 512.88	1046.28	3.53	0.03
7.	ld cen + age + voles + TLCH + dist + NND + age × voles + voles × TLCH	13	− 509.71	1046.29	3.54	0.03
(b) Nestling survival (n = 428)	Estimate	SE	LCI	UCI	N	RVI
age	0.17	0.23	−0.29	0.64	6	0.91
vole index (linear)	0.21	0.41	−0.59	1.01	7	1.00
vole index (quadratic)	−0.02	0.42	−0.84	0.80	7	1.00
TLCH	0.23	0.17	−0.11	0.57	7	1.00
ld cen	−0.35	0.08	−0.51	−0.18	7	1.00
age × vole index (linear)	0.24	0.41	−0.65	1.14	4	0.77
age × vole index (quadratic)	−0.89	0.48	−1.57	−0.21	4	0.77
age × TLCH	0.27	0.18	−0.09	0.62	3	0.46
TLCH × vole index (linear)	0.17	0.13	−0.08	0.42	7	1.00
TLCH × vole index (quadratic)	−0.33	0.13	−0.58	−0.07	7	1.00
dist	0.08	0.04	−0.10	0.26	2	0.12
NND	−0.03	0.03	−0.20	0.14	2	0.12
(Intercept)	1.65	0.23	1.19	2.10	–	–

Age = 1^st year breeder or older, ld cen = lay date centred to the mean of the study year, vole index = Microtus sp. vole index in spring (ordered factor), TLCH = territory land cover, dist = distance to the closest forest edge (log transformed), NND = nearest neighbour distance (log transformed), “×” = indicating an interaction term

ISSN: 1742-9994