Fig. 4
From: The seasonal sensitivity of brown bear denning phenology in response to climatic variability
Key model 2 fit results for den entry (a, b, c, d) and den exit (e, f, g, h). Panels AE depict the posterior mean (solid black line), 5 and 95% quantiles (dashed black lines) for global time-dependent temperature coefficients α(t), as well as posterior means for park-specific coefficients ai(t) (grey lines). Similarly, panels c, g depict snow depth coefficients β(t) and bi(t). Green dots represent the temporal distribution of dates on which den entry/exit were observed. Panel b, f depict the posterior credibility for sums \( \sum \limits_{t={t}_1}^{t_2}\alpha (t) \) being greater than zero, where t1 corresponds to the vertical axis, t2 to horizontal axis, and t0 ≤ t1 ≤ t2 ≤ T . Analogously, panels d, h visualize posterior credibility of \( \sum \limits_{t={t}_1}^{t_2}\beta (t)\ge 0 \). The credibility colour coding is shown in the colorbar