Fig. 3
From: The seasonal sensitivity of brown bear denning phenology in response to climatic variability
Temperature (a, b) and snow depth (c, d) patterns of bear den entry (a, c) and exit (b, d) [− 30,+ 30] days around the observed exit/entry dates. The solid red line represents the overall pattern for all studied parks, and gray lines display the park-specific patterns. The results for temperature were derived from a hierarchical Gaussian process regression (for more details, see the first set of models explained in the Statistical analyses) and enabled the uncertainty quantification: dashed red lines represent the 5 and 95% posterior quantiles of the overall pattern w(t), dotted red lines depict the 5 and 95% posterior quantiles of potential variation in park-specific patterns ui(t). The park-specific patterns for snow depth were obtained by fitting loess spline regressions to the long-term empirical averages of daily snow depth observations, and the overall pattern was obtained by taking the mean of site-specific ones