Fig. 5

Predicted site occupancy probabilities according to the autoregressive model as in eq. 3 assuming an effect of the neighboring sites (see text for details). Black dots are the monitored sites. Note that areas far away from a monitored site display the average estimate of site occupancy. The estimated average occupancy probability by a non-autoregressive model was 0.35, 0.59, 0.57 and 0.90 in 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015, respectively (Table 2)