Flexible reaction norms to environmental variables along the migration route and the significance of stopover duration for total speed of migration in a songbird migrant

Table 2 Daily departure probabilities

	Autumn		Spring
Parameter	Estimate	95% CrI	Estimate	95% CrI
Intercept	-0.25	-0.46 – 0.04	0.39	-0.05 – 0.82
Surface air temperature	-0.30	-0.56 – -0.04	NA	NA
Precipitation	0.14	-0.05 – 0.32	0.02	-0.47 – 0.46
Surface air pressure	-0.09	-0.32 – 0.13	0.70	0.34 – 1.07
Surface wind speed	0.00	-0.17 – 0.19	-0.30	-0.61 – 0.02
Flow assistance	-0.33	-0.53 – -0.12	0.42	0.14 – 0.72
Remaining migration distance	0.98	0.73 – 1.23	-1.34	-1.81 – -0.86
Surface air temperature-*-remaining migration distance	-0.83	-1.11 – -0.57	NA	NA
Precipitation-*-remaining migration distance	0.07	-0.13 – 0.25	0.06	-0.48 – 0.57
Surface air pressure-*- remaining migration distance	-0.30	-0.57 – -0.01	0.03	-0.50 – 0.60
Surface wind speed -*- remaining migration distance	0.20	-0.01 – 0.41	0.04	-0.52 – 0.57
Flow assistance-*- remaining migration distance	0.06	-0.20 – 0.31	-0.23	-0.70 – 0.24
Standard deviation of random factor year (2009 and 2013)	<0.0001		0.21
Sample size (number of days on migration of all birds)	694		297
Marginal R²	0.33		0.46
Conditional R²	0.33		0.47

Results of the model on the individual daily departure probability along the migration route for autumn and spring. Environmental variables describe conditions at sunset. In spring, air temperature was collinear with remaining migration distance and therefore air temperature was removed from the model. Estimates and 95% CrI are given for each environmental variable. 95% CrI not including zero are given in bold. More details, including scale parameter to assess overdispersion, goodness of fit, etc., are given in Additional file 4

ISSN: 1742-9994