Fig. 4

Model predictions on the effect of surface air temperature by remaining migration distance on travel speed during 303 travel days in autumn. To visualize the effect of the two-way interaction between surface air temperature and remaining migration distance on the travel speed for each travel day during autumn migration as predicted by the model (Table 3), explanatory variables were each summarized into five categories. Within each temperature category, values were slightly shifted along the x-axis to avoid overlapping. Given are the mean effects with the 95% CI. The y-axis shows the estimated mean travel speed for the different categories. Different colours indicate different remaining migration categories. Model predictions are only shown for surface air temperatures actually experienced by the wheatears in the wild