Predictors | Mean | 2.5% | 97.5% | Rhat | n.eff |
|---|
Staging probability | | | | | |
|---|
intercept (α
1
)
| 0.120 | -2.071 | 2.527 | 1.002 | 3500 |
daysa (α
2
)
| -0.105 | -0.766 | 0.536 | 1.002 | 2700 |
day.c
t
(α
3
)
| -0.215 | -0.484 | 0.014 | 1.002 | 2300 |
afl.z
i
(α
4
)
| -0.173 | -1.183 | 0.724 | 1.001 | 6200 |
temp.z
t
(α
5
)
| -0.096 | -1.288 | 1.264 | 1.002 | 1600 |
wind.z
t
(α
6
)
| -0.205 | -1.101 | 0.674 | 1.002 | 2100 |
twc.z
t
(α
7
)
| 0.178 | -0.746 | 1.139 | 1.002 | 2700 |
indfirst
i,t
(α
8
)
|
-2.892
|
-5.374
|
-0.681
|
1.002
|
2300
|
afl.z
i
x day.c
t
(α
9
)
|
-0.225
|
-0.162
|
-0.063
|
1.001
|
5500
|
Detection probability | | | | | |
Intercept (β
1
)
| 2.133 | -0.229 | 5.295 | 1.001 | 3800 |
radio-tagged
i
(β
2
)
|
27.680
|
3.874
|
71.780
|
1.001
|
22000
|
surfwind.z
t+1
(β
3
)
|
-1.712
|
-3.535
|
-0.3778
|
1.001
|
8900
|
deviance | 21.891 | 15.030 | 37.360 | 1.001 | 4100 |
- Parameter estimates of factors influencing the staging probability Φ (the probability that a bird survives 24 hours and remains at the stopover site, α-values) and the detection probability p (the probability of detecting an individual wheatear during one day, β-values) for the first CJS-model fitted to data of 75 individuals. Significant effects, i.e., 95% credible interval does not include 0, are given in bold. Given are the mean, the 2.5% and 97.5% quantiles of the posterior distributions. Rhat values larger than 1.01 indicate non-convergence [59]. Parameters estimating the staging probability: daysa = day since arrival; day.c = day since start of study (centered); afl.z = arrival fuel load (standardized); temp.z = surface temperature (standardized); wind.z = surface wind speed (standardized); twc.z = tail wind component (standardized); indfirst = index variable indicating the day of arrival, with that variable we could account for individuals that disappeared from our study site shortly after capture and behaved as transients; afl.z x day.c = interaction of arrival fuel load and day since start of study. Parameters estimating the detection probability: radio-tagged = bird with radio transmitter; surfwind.z = surface wind speed (standardized).
