Skip to main content

Table 2 Estimating staging and detection probabilities of northern wheatears

From: Stopover optimization in a long-distance migrant: the role of fuel load and nocturnal take-off time in Alaskan northern wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe)

Predictors Mean 2.5% 97.5% Rhat n.eff
Staging probability      
intercept (α 1 ) 0.120 -2.071 2.527 1.002 3500
daysa (α 2 ) -0.105 -0.766 0.536 1.002 2700
day.c t 3 ) -0.215 -0.484 0.014 1.002 2300
afl.z i 4 ) -0.173 -1.183 0.724 1.001 6200
temp.z t 5 ) -0.096 -1.288 1.264 1.002 1600
wind.z t 6 ) -0.205 -1.101 0.674 1.002 2100
twc.z t 7 ) 0.178 -0.746 1.139 1.002 2700
indfirst i,t 8 ) -2.892 -5.374 -0.681 1.002 2300
afl.z i x day.c t 9 ) -0.225 -0.162 -0.063 1.001 5500
Detection probability      
Intercept (β 1 ) 2.133 -0.229 5.295 1.001 3800
radio-tagged i 2 ) 27.680 3.874 71.780 1.001 22000
surfwind.z t+1 3 ) -1.712 -3.535 -0.3778 1.001 8900
deviance 21.891 15.030 37.360 1.001 4100
  1. Parameter estimates of factors influencing the staging probability Φ (the probability that a bird survives 24 hours and remains at the stopover site, α-values) and the detection probability p (the probability of detecting an individual wheatear during one day, β-values) for the first CJS-model fitted to data of 75 individuals. Significant effects, i.e., 95% credible interval does not include 0, are given in bold. Given are the mean, the 2.5% and 97.5% quantiles of the posterior distributions. Rhat values larger than 1.01 indicate non-convergence [59]. Parameters estimating the staging probability: daysa = day since arrival; day.c = day since start of study (centered); afl.z = arrival fuel load (standardized); temp.z = surface temperature (standardized); wind.z = surface wind speed (standardized); twc.z = tail wind component (standardized); indfirst = index variable indicating the day of arrival, with that variable we could account for individuals that disappeared from our study site shortly after capture and behaved as transients; afl.z x day.c = interaction of arrival fuel load and day since start of study. Parameters estimating the detection probability: radio-tagged = bird with radio transmitter; surfwind.z = surface wind speed (standardized).